Prediction of Corentin Denolly vs Marc Van Der Merwe at M25 Kigali 10-09-25

Wojtek Kolan

Wojtek Kolan

Published on 08 Oct at 09:39 PM UTC

Denolly is scheduled to play Merwe on 09 Oct Thu at 11:00 AM UTC in the M25 Kigali, Second round.

HEAD TO HEAD

C. Denolly vs M. Van Der Merwe

Corentin Denolly
Corentin Denolly

Flag FRA FRA

l
l
w
l
w
w
l
w
l
w
Marc Van Der Merwe
Marc Van Der Merwe

Flag RSA RSA

w
w
l
w
w
w
w
w
l
w

0

Win

0

Played

0

Win

28
Age
31
6'1" (185 cm)
Height
-
312
C. Rank
0
269
Best Rank
0
0
Total Titles
0
0
YTD Titles
0
$56.9K
Career Money
$0
Left-Handed
Plays
-

C. Denolly Vs M. V. D. Merwe Picks

Based on the implied probability from the match winner, Corentin Denolly has a 70.4% chance to get the victory.

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To Win
MatchBookie
Prediction
Bookie
Odds
M. V. D. Merwe
29.6%
3.21
C. Denolly
70.4%
1.35

Above is implied from odds. Login / Register to find out our expert predictions with edge / profit forecast.

Total Games
MarketBookie
Prediction
Bookie
Odds
Over 20
57.14%
1.75

Above is implied from odds. Login / Register to find out our expert predictions with edge / profit forecast.

Head-to-head: Denolly 0 - 0 Merwe

PlayersHead To Head Match Wins
Denolly0
Merwe0
Last 0 H2H Matches:

no past h2h happened.

C. Denolly Vs M. V. D. Merwe Best Odds

1x2
W2
1.35
W1
3.21
Games O/U
> 20
1.75

C. Denolly vs M. V. D. Merwe H2H Profile

Stats
$56,935Career Prize Money$0
62.08% (424-259)Career Total W/L74.19% (23-8)
12Titles0
50.00% (1-1)YTD Win/Loss0% (0-0)

C. Denolly vs M. V. D. Merwe Match Preview:

  • Second Serve Efficiency: Corentin Denolly has won 42.48% of second serve points, slightly trailing Marc Van Der Merwe's 42.73%. How crucial is this for determining match outcomes? Typically, it's quite indicative.
  • Return Game Performance: In recent form, Denolly excels with a 50.28% win rate on opponents' second serves, outperforming Van Der Merwe's 43.54%. However, Van Der Merwe edges Denolly on first serve returns, 32.70% to 30.61%.
  • Breakpoint Resilience: When under pressure, Marc Van Der Merwe saves 51.35% of breakpoints, marginally better than Denolly's 51.05%, which is important for in-game betting insights.
  • Overall Match Wins: Over the past year, Van Der Merwe dominates with a 75.00% win rate compared to Denolly’s 50.88%, showing a strong overall form.
  • Surface Performance: Both have their best win rates on clay, each with 65%. Denolly struggles on grass, while Van Der Merwe's weakest surface is hard courts with a 73% win rate.
  • Event Level Experience: Marc Van Der Merwe wins 75.00% of his matches at the Futures level, whereas Denolly wins 38.24% at the Challenger level. Does experience at different event levels impact predictions? It certainly can.
  • Opponent Ranking: Denolly has faced opponents with an average rank of 327.96, while Van Der Merwe has battled higher-ranked players, averaging 165.7.
  • Deciding Set Success: Should the match go to a deciding set, Van Der Merwe has an 83% success rate, surpassing Denolly’s 59%.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Corentin Denolly and Marc Van Der Merwe promises to be riveting, with both players showcasing distinct strengths and challenges. A key stat to watch is their performance on second serves, where Van Der Merwe holds a marginal advantage.

Denolly has proven more effective in winning points off opponents’ second serves. However, Van Der Merwe's robust record in first serve returns could offer him an upper hand. When it comes to playing under pressure, Van Der Merwe slightly edges Denolly, which might be crucial in tight situations.

Given Van Der Merwe’s higher success rate in matches over the past year and his strong performances against higher-ranked players, he appears better equipped to handle the competitive intensity of this matchup. Furthermore, his track record in deciding sets suggests he has the resilience to maintain composure and win pivotal points.

Considering these factors, Marc Van Der Merwe is the likely winner in this encounter.

Corentin Denolly vs Marc Van Der Merwe Editorial Preview By TennisTipster88.

C. Denolly Vs M. V. D. Merwe Current Event Stats

Stats
1Matches Played1
0:55:58Last Match Time2:56:33
0:55:58Total Time2:56:33
0% (0/0)Break Points Saved55% (6/11)
100% (7/7)Service Hold %69% (11/16)
29% (2/7)Opponent Hold %69% (11/16)
0% (0/0)Tiebreak Win %0% (0/1)
0% (0/0)Deciding Set Win %0% (0/1)
0.00Tiebreaks Per Match1.00

Currently displayed stats include matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer. Who do you back to make it through to the next round? We have predictions for every match in M25 Kigali.

Recent Performance Stats

2nd Serve Win %: Denolly 44%, Merwe 55%.
Opp 2nd Serve Pts Won: Denolly 50%, Merwe 55%.
Break Points Saved %: Denolly 59%, Merwe 66%.

C. Denolly Recent Matches Played

OPPONENTRESULTSCOREH2H
ClayM25 Kigali - 06-10-2025

R1

RWAE. Niyigena
W
6-2 6-1
ClayM15 Slovenj Gradec - 22-09-2025

R2

GERM. Homberg
L
6-3 3-6 6-4

R1

SLOM. Retelj
W
6-1 6-1
ClayTargu Mures 2 Challenger - 15-09-2025

QF

FRAM. Erhard
L
6-0 6-3

R2

ESPM. Alcala
W
6-3 3-6 7-6(5)

M. V. D. Merwe Recent Matches Played

OPPONENTRESULTSCOREH2H
ClayM25 Kigali - 06-10-2025

R1

AUSL. Bataljin
W
4-6 7-6(1) 6-4
HardM15 Hillcrest - 14-07-2025

SF

CANF. Peliwo
W
6-4 1-6 6-1

F

RSAP. Henning
L
6-3 6-3

QF

RSAC. Doig
W
6-3 6-4

R2

USAA. Ganesan
W
w/o

Where To Watch Denolly vs Merwe?

When the match starts we will have live scores and stats on this page. For live streaming at TV channels of this match, see our ATP and WTA worldwide viewing pages. Free trial live streaming of Denolly Vs Merwe is now available here.

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C. Denolly vs M. V. D. Merwe Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

Stats
65.17% (305/163)YTD Win/Loss100.00% (1/0)
62.10% (662/404)Sets Win/Loss66.67% (2/1)
54.83% (5376/4429)Games Win/Loss51.52% (17/16)
0.24Aces Per Game0
1153Aces Total0
0.31Double Faults Per Game0.13
1465Total Double Faults2
1:33:31Average Match Time2:56:33
495.4Average Opponent Rank0
65% (19317/29885)1st Serve %76% (83/109)
66% (12797/19317)1st Serve Win %64% (53/83)
48% (5090/10569)2nd Serve Win %50% (13/26)
47% (1709/3644)Break Points Won % (Total)38% (5/13)
44% (13553/30577)Return Points Win %43% (50/116)
66% (304/463)Best of 3 Sets Win %100% (1/1)
59% (65/111)Tiebreaks Win % (Total)100% (1/1)
61% (82/135)Deciding Set Win %100% (1/1)
92% (291/267)1st Set Won, Won Match0% (0/0)
8% (291/24)1st Set Won, Lost Match0% (0/0)
21% (177/38)1st Set Lost, Won Match100% (1/1)

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Potential H2H Matches This Week

Denolly (M25 Kigali)
Denolly vs BaxCould play in The Semifinals
Denolly vs LaaroussiCould play in The Semifinals
Denolly vs UjvaryCould play in The Semifinals
Denolly vs RaynelCould play in The Semifinals
Homberg vs DenollyCould play in The Quarterfinals
Dlimi vs DenollyCould play in The Quarterfinals
Merwe (M25 Kigali)
Merwe vs BaxCould play in The Semifinals
Merwe vs LaaroussiCould play in The Semifinals
Merwe vs UjvaryCould play in The Semifinals
Merwe vs RaynelCould play in The Semifinals
Homberg vs MerweCould play in The Quarterfinals
Dlimi vs MerweCould play in The Quarterfinals

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